CONMEBOL: Argentina's Dominance & Uruguay's Resurgence
Real talk: Everyone expected Argentina to be good. They won the last World Cup, after all. But their start to the 2026 qualifiers has been nothing short of imperious. Lionel Messi, even at 36, has bagged four goals in six matches, leading his squad to 15 points and the top spot in CONMEBOL. They've conceded just two goals, both in their 2-0 loss to Uruguay, demonstrating a defensive solidity that often gets overlooked.
Here's the thing: Uruguay under Marcelo Bielsa is a different beast. They sit second with 13 points, having beaten both Argentina and Brazil. Darwin Núñez has been a revelation, scoring five goals. That's a significant improvement from their somewhat disjointed 2022 campaign, where they scraped through on the final day. Brazil, on the other hand, looks out of sorts. They’re down in sixth with just seven points, having lost three straight. That 2-0 defeat to Uruguay and a 1-0 home loss to Argentina really stung.
Chile and Paraguay are struggling, currently outside the direct qualification spots. Chile has only five points from six games, scoring a paltry three goals. That's a serious concern, especially with aging stars like Alexis Sánchez still carrying much of the creative burden. Ecuador, despite a points deduction, is holding strong in fifth with eight points, showcasing their resilience.
UEFA: Germany's Redemption & Italy's Fight
Look, Germany's performance in the last two World Cups was a national embarrassment. But the early signs for 2026 are promising. They've topped their group with 12 points from four matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just one. Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz are finally hitting their stride internationally, providing the creative spark the team desperately needed. This is a stark contrast to their 2022 qualifying group, where they dropped points unexpectedly.
Thing is, Group C has thrown up a few surprises. England, as expected, is leading their group comfortably, but Italy, the reigning European champions, are in a dogfight. They're level on points with Ukraine in their group, both with seven points after four matches. The Azzurri have struggled to find a consistent goalscorer since Ciro Immobile's peak, and it's showing. They drew 1-1 with North Macedonia, a team that knocked them out of the 2022 qualifiers. That result feels like a bad omen.
One slightly controversial opinion: France, despite Kylian Mbappé's brilliance, feels a little too reliant on individual moments. They've won all their games, but some performances, like the narrow 1-0 win over Greece, suggest a team that isn't quite as dominant as their talent suggests. Their defensive record is stellar, only one goal conceded, but I'm not convinced they've been truly tested yet.
CAF: Morocco's Momentum & Egypt's Climb
The 2022 World Cup semi-finalists, Morocco, have carried that momentum into the 2026 qualifiers. They've won both their opening matches, scoring four goals and conceding none. Achraf Hakimi continues to be a force down the right flank, and their collective defensive effort remains a hallmark. They look like the clear favorites in their group.
Egypt, after missing the last World Cup, are making a strong statement. They lead their group with six points from two games, thanks largely to Mohamed Salah's three goals. Their 6-0 thrashing of Djibouti sent a clear message. This is a more organized Egyptian side, and they seem determined to avoid the heartbreak of 2022. Senegal, another African powerhouse, also sits atop their group with four points, but a 0-0 draw against Togo shows that even the giants can be held.
The biggest underperformers in CAF so far might be Algeria. They’ve only managed three points from two games, including a surprising 1-0 loss to Mauritania. This is a team with significant talent, like Riyad Mahrez, but they haven't clicked consistently since winning the AFCON in 2019. Their goal difference is currently zero, which is not ideal for a top seed.
AFC & CONCACAF: USA's Youth & Japan's Consistency
In CONCACAF, the USMNT is building around a young core. Christian Pulisic and Gio Reyna are leading the charge, and they’ve looked comfortable in their early qualifying matches. It's too early for full group standings given the format, but their recent friendly results and Nations League performances indicate a strong trajectory. Mexico, traditionally a regional powerhouse, has shown some vulnerabilities, particularly in their attack, which has looked blunt at times.
Japan in AFC continues to impress. They've won their first two group stage matches with ease, scoring 10 goals and conceding none. Takefusa Kubo and Kaoru Mitoma are electric, and their technical proficiency is head and shoulders above most of their Asian rivals. South Korea, with Son Heung-min, is also off to a perfect start, but their goal difference isn't quite as dominant as Japan's, with a 5-0 win over Singapore and a tight 3-0 victory against China.
I predict that by the end of the qualifiers, Brazil will turn things around and qualify comfortably, but they won't be the dominant force they once were. Uruguay will finish top of CONMEBOL, while Germany will surprise a few people with how easily they cruise through UEFA qualifying.