We're still a ways out from the 2026 World Cup in North America, but the qualifying campaigns are heating up, and we're already seeing some familiar faces struggle and a few dark horses emerge. The expanded format means more spots, but the competition for those guaranteed berths remains fierce across every confederation. Let's dig into who's making a statement and who's got work to do.
CONMEBOL: Brazil & Argentina's Dominance Tested
In South America, it's business as usual at the very top, but not without some early jitters. Argentina, the reigning World Cup champions, sit comfortably near the summit with Lionel Messi still pulling the strings. They've dropped just two points so far, a 2-0 loss to Uruguay, demonstrating their continued quality. Brazil, on the other hand, has looked uncharacteristically shaky. After four consecutive wins to start, they suffered a stunning 2-0 defeat to Uruguay and then a 1-0 home loss to Argentina, leaving them fourth after six games. That's not the Brazil we're used to seeing in qualifiers, even with Neymar sidelined.
Here's the thing: Uruguay, under Marcelo Bielsa, has been the real surprise. They've beaten both Brazil and Argentina, a feat not many teams accomplish in a single qualifying cycle. Darwin Núñez has been a revelation up front, bagging five goals in six matches, putting him among the top scorers. Colombia also looks strong, undefeated through six games, with Luis Díaz leading their charge. Chile, meanwhile, is in a real hole, sitting eighth with just five points. Their aging squad is struggling to keep pace, and missing the last two World Cups seems to be weighing heavily. Unless Alexis Sánchez and Arturo Vidal can conjure some magic, it's looking like a long road for them.
UEFA: Germany's Redemption & Italy's Grind
European qualifying is always a grind, but the early returns are telling. Germany, as hosts, don't have to qualify, which is probably a good thing given their recent form. However, other traditional powerhouses are finding their rhythm. England, with Harry Kane's relentless goal-scoring, looks dominant as usual, often wrapping up qualification with games to spare. France, too, is cruising, Kylian Mbappé proving unstoppable. Spain, under Luis de la Fuente, is integrating new talent effectively, securing vital wins against tough opponents like Scotland.
Real talk: Italy, the reigning European champions, always seem to make things harder for themselves. They've had a few draws against teams they should be beating, leaving them in a tighter race than anticipated. Their defense, usually rock solid, has conceded more than expected. The Netherlands, after a strong showing in recent tournaments, also had a nervy start, dropping points against Greece. On the flip side, countries like Austria and Hungary are showing real improvement, pushing for automatic spots or at least strong playoff positions. Dominik Szoboszlai has been instrumental for Hungary, pulling the strings in midfield and scoring crucial goals.
AFC & CONCACAF: Newcomers & Old Guards
In Asia, Japan and South Korea are, predictably, leading their respective groups. Japan's attacking prowess, with Takefusa Kubo and Kaoru Mitoma, has been on full display, racking up impressive goal differentials. Australia is also performing well, securing wins against lower-ranked teams to build a strong foundation. The expanded format means more Asian teams will get a direct shot, which is fantastic for the region's development. Saudi Arabia, despite their recent financial investment in their domestic league, has had a mixed start, dropping points they probably shouldn't have.
CONCACAF's new format, with three hosts (USA, Canada, Mexico) already in, changes the dynamic completely. The remaining spots are fiercely contested. Panama has been a pleasant surprise, building on their improved performances from the last cycle. They've shown a defensive resilience and opportunistic attacking that makes them a tough out. Costa Rica, a perennial qualifier, is facing a tougher battle than usual, struggling to find consistency after the retirement of key players like Bryan Ruiz. Look, the USA and Canada are playing friendlies and Nations League matches, but the real test for them will be maintaining form until 2026. Mexico, meanwhile, has to rebuild some confidence after a disappointing showing at the last World Cup.
The Road Ahead
Thing is, qualifying campaigns are marathons, not sprints. Teams that start slow often find their rhythm, and those flying high can crash. Brazil will almost certainly recover and secure their spot, but their early struggles are a warning sign. Uruguay and Colombia look like legitimate threats to challenge the traditional top two in CONMEBOL. In Europe, while the big guns will likely qualify, the fight for the remaining spots and playoff berths will be intense, with teams like Norway (led by Erling Haaland) and Scotland pushing hard. My bold prediction: We'll see at least two major European nations, who were regulars in recent World Cups, fail to qualify directly and end up in a brutal playoff scenario, with one of them ultimately missing out entirely on the 2026 tournament.