The Early Favorites for the 2026 Golden Boot
Look, it's two years out, but the chatter for the 2026 World Cup in North America has already started. And naturally, the Golden Boot is always one of the most compelling individual races. It's not just about who's scoring now, but who's built for the grind of a month-long tournament, especially when you factor in the expanded 48-team format which will likely mean more lopsided group stage games for the top nations. That’s more chances for the big guns to pad their stats early.
Kylian Mbappé, obviously, sits atop everyone's list. He bagged eight goals in Qatar, including a hat-trick in the final against Argentina. For France's Euro 2024 qualifying campaign, he found the net nine times in eight appearances. His club form for PSG remains absurd, with 27 goals in 29 Ligue 1 games this past season. The man is a machine, a blur of pace and precision, and France will be among the favorites to lift the trophy, ensuring him plenty of minutes and opportunities. He's the safest bet, maybe too safe, but it's hard to argue against his consistency on the biggest stage.
Then there’s Erling Haaland. The towering Norwegian missed the 2022 World Cup, but he's been a force for Manchester City, scoring 38 goals across all competitions in 2023-24. For Norway in Euro 2024 qualifying, he scored six goals in five matches. The big question mark is Norway's ability to get deep into the tournament. They’ve got talent, but can they navigate a tricky group and then win knockout games? If Norway makes a surprise run to the quarters or semis, Haaland could easily rack up a ridiculous tally, particularly if they draw some weaker opponents in the group stage. He’s a flat-out goal scorer, pure and simple.
Harry Kane is another perennial contender. He finished with four goals in Qatar, despite England's quarter-final exit. For Bayern Munich, he notched 36 goals in 32 Bundesliga games in his debut season, showcasing his elite finishing and playmaking. In Euro 2024 qualifying, Kane led all scorers with eight goals. England, like France, is expected to go deep, which means at least five to seven games for Kane to make his mark. He's got the penalty duties locked down, too, which is always a bonus for Golden Boot hopefuls. My slightly controversial take? Kane is actually a *better* bet than Haaland, because England will progress further than Norway.
Vinicius Jr. enters the conversation as Brazil’s attacking lynchpin. He scored one goal in Qatar before Brazil’s quarter-final elimination. His club form for Real Madrid has been electric, with 24 goals in 39 appearances this past season, including the winner in the 2024 Champions League final. While not a pure striker, Vinicius's explosive runs and improved finishing make him a significant threat, especially playing alongside Rodrygo and potentially Endrick. Brazil will be looking to make amends for 2022, and Vinicius will be central to their plans. He’s still young, still improving, and the spotlight doesn't faze him.
Julian Alvarez was a revelation for Argentina in 2022, scoring four goals en route to their World Cup triumph. He’s a reliable goalscorer for Manchester City, even when not always a starter, bagging 11 goals in 36 Premier League appearances last season. With Messi likely playing a deeper role, Alvarez could again be Argentina's primary goal threat. He’s got that knack for being in the right place at the right time.
Beyond the top five, you've got guys like Romelu Lukaku, who despite his struggles with club consistency, turns up for Belgium. He scored 14 goals in eight Euro 2024 qualifying matches, a truly astounding number. If Belgium can finally put it all together, Lukaku will be feasting. Lautaro Martinez, fresh off winning Serie A with Inter Milan where he scored 24 goals, will be pushing Alvarez for that starting spot for Argentina. And then there’s the wildcard, Endrick. The Brazilian teenager is heading to Real Madrid this summer and has already scored for the national team. If he explodes, he could be a dark horse, but that's a big 'if' for a 19-year-old.
Diogo Jota for Portugal is another to watch. He scored six goals in seven Euro 2024 qualifiers and, while often overshadowed by Ronaldo, he's a clinical finisher. Portugal's attacking talent should guarantee them plenty of goals. Lastly, Victor Osimhen. Nigeria still needs to qualify, but if they do, Osimhen's nine goals in 10 Serie A appearances this season, combined with his raw power, could make him a handful for any defense.
My bold prediction: Harry Kane outscores Mbappé, largely thanks to a slightly easier group for England and one or two more penalty opportunities.